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Adaptive Benign Overfitting (ABO): Overparameterized RLS for Online Learning in Non-stationary Time-series

Mijares, Luis Ontaneda, Firoozye, Nick

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Overparameterized models have recently challenged conventional learning theory by exhibiting improved generalization beyond the interpolation limit, a phenomenon known as benign overfitting. This work introduces Adaptive Benign Overfitting (ABO), extending the recursive least-squares (RLS) framework to this regime through a numerically stable formulation based on orthogonal-triangular updates. A QR-based exponentially weighted RLS (QR-EWRLS) algorithm is introduced, combining random Fourier feature mappings with forgetting-factor regularization to enable online adaptation under non-stationary conditions. The orthogonal decomposition prevents the numerical divergence associated with covariance-form RLS while retaining adaptability to evolving data distributions. Experiments on nonlinear synthetic time series confirm that the proposed approach maintains bounded residuals and stable condition numbers while reproducing the double-descent behavior characteristic of overparameterized models. Applications to forecasting foreign exchange and electricity demand show that ABO is highly accurate (comparable to baseline kernel methods) while achieving speed improvements of between 20 and 40 percent. The results provide a unified view linking adaptive filtering, kernel approximation, and benign overfitting within a stable online learning framework.


Sampled Softmax with Random Fourier Features

Neural Information Processing Systems

The computational cost of training with softmax cross entropy loss grows linearly with the number of classes. For the settings where a large number of classes are involved, a common method to speed up training is to sample a subset of classes and utilize an estimate of the loss gradient based on these classes, known as the sampled softmax method. However, the sampled softmax provides a biased estimate of the gradient unless the samples are drawn from the exact softmax distribution, which is again expensive to compute. Therefore, a widely employed practical approach involves sampling from a simpler distribution in the hope of approximating the exact softmax distribution. In this paper, we develop the first theoretical understanding of the role that different sampling distributions play in determining the quality of sampled softmax. Motivated by our analysis and the work on kernel-based sampling, we propose the Random Fourier Softmax (RF-softmax) method that utilizes the powerful Random Fourier Features to enable more efficient and accurate sampling from an approximate softmax distribution. We show that RF-softmax leads to low bias in estimation in terms of both the full softmax distribution and the full softmax gradient.


A random matrix analysis of random Fourier features: beyond the Gaussian kernel, a precise phase transition, and the corresponding double descent

Neural Information Processing Systems

This article characterizes the exact asymptotics of random Fourier feature (RFF) regression, in the realistic setting where the number of data samples $n$, their dimension $p$, and the dimension of feature space $N$ are all large and comparable. In this regime, the random RFF Gram matrix no longer converges to the well-known limiting Gaussian kernel matrix (as it does when $N \to \infty$ alone), but it still has a tractable behavior that is captured by our analysis. This analysis also provides accurate estimates of training and test regression errors for large $n,p,N$. Based on these estimates, a precise characterization of two qualitatively different phases of learning, including the phase transition between them, is provided; and the corresponding double descent test error curve is derived from this phase transition behavior. These results do not depend on strong assumptions on the data distribution, and they perfectly match empirical results on real-world data sets.


Cluster-Based Generalized Additive Models Informed by Random Fourier Features

Huang, Xin, Li, Jia, Yu, Jun

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Explainable machine learning aims to strike a balance between prediction accuracy and model transparency, particularly in settings where black-box predictive models, such as deep neural networks or kernel-based methods, achieve strong empirical performance but remain difficult to interpret. This work introduces a mixture of generalized additive models (GAMs) in which random Fourier feature (RFF) representations are leveraged to uncover locally adaptive structure in the data. In the proposed method, an RFF-based embedding is first learned and then compressed via principal component analysis. The resulting low-dimensional representations are used to perform soft clustering of the data through a Gaussian mixture model. These cluster assignments are then applied to construct a mixture-of-GAMs framework, where each local GAM captures nonlinear effects through interpretable univariate smooth functions. Numerical experiments on real-world regression benchmarks, including the California Housing, NASA Airfoil Self-Noise, and Bike Sharing datasets, demonstrate improved predictive performance relative to classical interpretable models. Overall, this construction provides a principled approach for integrating representation learning with transparent statistical modeling.